The election in Israel is unfolding as a political thriller with an uncertain outcome, as the initial results do not give any camp the majority needed to form a government. Benjamin Netanyahu maintains the lead with 57 seats but falls short of the 61-seat threshold that would allow him to govern, while the opposition led by Gadi Eizenkot must seek alliances in a fragmented political landscape.
With the vote count still underway, Netanyahu’s bloc has 57 seats, compared to 47 for the opposition camp, while Arab parties have a combined total of 16 seats, according to data published by the Times of Israel at 5:58 a.m. on Wednesday (October 28).
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The ten-seat difference is not enough to secure a governing majority, making post-election negotiations the most critical aspect of the election. As analysts have pointed out, “what matters is not what happens on October 27, which is election day, but what happens the next day, on the 28th.”
Netanyahu insists on forming a right-wing government, ruling out cooperation with Arab parties, while the final balance of power remains uncertain.
Gadi Eizenkot, despite the uncertainty that continues to surround the outcome, spoke of a “complete rejection” of Benjamin Netanyahu. “The people have chosen change,” he said, addressing his supporters, making it clear that he would exhaust every avenue to form a government without leading Israel into another election.
Benjamin Netanyahu, on the other hand, kept a low profile in his speech, refraining from commenting on his opponent or celebrating the result. He focused on Likud’s position as the leading party, with projections giving it 27 seats in the Knesset, compared to 32 in the outgoing parliament.
Scenarios for the Day Ahead
With 41.9% of polling stations tallied and votes from absentee ballots—including those from soldiers—still pending, four scenarios for the day after are on the table, as no camp has yet secured the path to power.
- A coalition government with new allies
Following the official announcement of the results in the coming days, Israeli President Isaac Herzog, will task the candidate he deems most likely to secure the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset with forming a government.
Negotiations will follow, which may prove to be lengthy and difficult. After the 2022 elections, it took Benjamin Netanyahu 58 days to form a coalition government.
Although Netanyahu’s Likud party is once again expected to emerge as the largest party in terms of seats—with 24 to 25 seats according to estimates— the outgoing prime minister may struggle to find new allies beyond the far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that already support him.
In contrast, Eisenkot’s coalition could seek support either through defections of lawmakers from Netanyahu’s camp or through the Arab parties.
The two Arab factions are expected, according to exit polls, to secure strong parliamentary representation, with estimates pointing to a total of 17 to 18 seats.
Political upheavals, defections, and unpredictable alliances are familiar features of Israeli political history, meaning that the formation of a new coalition government remains a distinct possibility.
- Arab parties hold the balance of power in a minority government
If neither of the two main coalitions manages to secure 61 seats, another possibility is the formation of a minority government, which would secure parliamentary support on a case-by-case basis.
In this scenario, Arab parties could play a decisive role in political developments.
Mansour Abbas’s Ram faction, which is projected to win up to seven seats, has repeatedly expressed its intention to cooperate with Eizenkot’s coalition. At the same time, the United List has stated that it could offer parliamentary support to any coalition seeking to remove Netanyahu from power.
However, key opposition figures expressed reservations during the election campaign regarding the possibility of such a collaboration, due to the reaction of a significant portion of the Jewish electorate to cooperation with Arab parties.
Netanyahu capitalized on the issue during his campaign, denouncing his opponent’s potential cooperation with Arab parties and portraying it as an alliance between “the left and the Muslim Brotherhood.” He even argued that such a development would pose a threat to Israel’s very survival.
- Government of National Unity
A third scenario is the formation of a government of national unity, although the deep political divisions in Israel make such a development difficult.
Some commentators point to the possibility of cooperation among the so-called “Zionist” parties, without the participation of Arab factions and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties.
A poll published in mid-October showed that 55% of Israelis would prefer a national unity government to the calling of new elections, provided there was no clear winner.
There is, after all, a precedent for such an agreement. In 2020, Netanyahu and centrist Benny Gantz agreed to share power, providing for an alternation in the office of prime minister following three elections in less than a year. The agreement, however, collapsed before the one-year mark, leading the country into a new election cycle.
According to recent reports, President Herzog has been working behind the scenes to broker a rapprochement between Netanyahu and Eizenkot in order to prevent another period of political gridlock.
Despite the pressure, both main camps categorically reject the possibility of cooperation. The opposition, in particular, had framed the election as a critical test for removing the outgoing prime minister from power.
- The Scenario for New Elections
If no candidate manages to form a government, the country may be headed back to the polls.
Israel has experienced similar political instability in the past. From April 2019 to March 2021, four elections were held as political parties were unable to agree on a viable government solution.
The candidate who receives the mandate to form a government from President Herzog will initially have 28 days to do so, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. If they fail, additional procedures are in place before the Knesset could be dissolved again and new elections called.
A new election campaign could exacerbate political instability in a country that continues to grapple with the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attack and regional conflicts. Until the situation becomes clearer and a new government is formed, Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister.
Source: cnn.gr
