*By Dr. Andreas Prokopiou – Published on CyprusEnergy.News.
In the public debate on energy in Cyprus, the lack of evidence-based information is pervasive. Here, we always base our arguments on official data, because energy literacy is not a luxury—it is a prerequisite, especially for policymakers. Data never takes sides. Only those who choose to ignore it take sides.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
GSI: Navtex issuance for seabed surveys is “a matter of days”
AHK: When and Why Will Drones Fly Over Areas of Cyprus?
This issue is particularly timely these days, as proposals are circulating to revise solar power purchase agreements as a way to lower electricity bills. Before evaluating such proposals, one needs to understand exactly what the “solar” component of the energy mix represents— how much of it is actually sold somewhere, and how much goes unsold.
The official chart, as we all see it
The Hellenic Electricity System Operator (HESO) publishes the island’s electricity demand in real time along with the generation mix—conventional generation, wind power, and a single yellow profile representing the total distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. To illustrate what this profile consists of—since its composition is not shown—we present below two versions of the same chart for the same two days in 2026: first as currently published by the Hellenic Electricity System Operator (HESO), with PV shown as a single block, and second, the same chart broken down by PV category, based on data from the Distribution System Operator (DSO).
Let’s first look at how the data is published today.
- May 10, 2026 (low demand, 11,037 MWh) – conventional 67.3%, wind 6.6%, PV 24.1%.
- August 25, 2026 (high demand, 23,551 MWh) – conventional 73.0%, wind 0.9% (typical summer windless period), solar 24.9%.
About a quarter of daily demand is met by solar power on both days, but the chart does not show exactly where that quarter comes from.
What makes up the yellow profile of solar generation
The Distribution System Operator (DSO) has been publishing the generation data for PV systems in the distribution system since the launch of the Competitive Electricity Market, broken down into three main categories.
- Large-scale commercial PV parks (controlled)—fully controlled remotely via a SCADA system.
- Small-scale and residential, controlled—small-scale systems under net-billing and net-metering arrangements, with a Ripple or IoT remote control system.
- Residential, uncontrolled – self-consumption on rooftops without a remote control system, typically under net-metering.
The chart below shows the same two days, with the PV systems divided into these three categories.
Which actually produces more
On both days, small-scale installations (residential and small-scale commercial combined) far exceed large-scale commercial solar farms.
- May 10 – parks 3.9%, small-scale total 20.7%.
- August 25 – parks 9.8%, small-scale total 15.6%.
- Total sample, approximately 310 days – small-scale systems accounted for 74.5% of total delivered photovoltaic energy, compared to 25.5% from large-scale parks.
More than 102,000 small, distributed systems on residential and commercial rooftops (99,854 net-metering and 2,343 net-billing, according to the Ministry’s official installed capacity data) make up the largest portion of the yellow curve in the HEnEx chart. There are 254 large-scale installations participating in the market.
Why the ratio changes – The cut
The share of large-scale solar farms increases significantly on days of high demand, from 3.9% to 9.8%, while the share of uncontrolled residential systems decreases, from 8.8% to 3.7%. The second change is not due to curtailment, since these residential systems are essentially not curtailed at all; their generation volume remains nearly constant over the two days, 972 MWh and 876 MWh, respectively. When total demand is low, they therefore account for a larger share of it, while when demand is high, they account for a smaller share, simply because the denominator changes. The increase in the wind farms’ share, on the other hand, reflects how the system is managed: when demand is low and sunshine is high, someone has to be curtailed.
The smaller and more localized a generator is, the less it is exposed to curtailment. The burden of balancing the system falls almost exclusively on large wind farms.
Who Sets the Market Price?
- Large-scale commercial farms—participate in the wholesale electricity market (Day-Ahead Market) and sell at market price.
- Small-scale projects—settle bilaterally with the EAC, outside the wholesale market. In net metering, energy is offset directly: with cheap solar power at midday offsetting expensive conventional power at night, while in net-billing, the EAC credits the excess energy fed into the grid at a fixed rate of 11 cents/kWh. In both cases, the energy reduces demand at midday but remains outside the Competitive Market and never enters the marginal price-setting mechanism.
The largest portion of Cyprus’s photovoltaic generation—the portion represented by the yellow curve—is largely invisible to market pricing. It indirectly affects the price by reducing the demand that must be met by more expensive sources at midday, but it does not itself determine any price.
Official data on installed capacity from the Ministry’s Energy Service (April 2026) show the installed capacity by category and their operating status.
- Net metering, accounting for approximately 44.7% of installed capacity (471.51 MW) – exchanges cheap solar energy with the EAC at midday for expensive conventional energy at night, without any market-based price.
- Net-billing, around 15.0% (158.27 MW) – Excess energy fed into the grid is settled with the EAC at a fixed, regulated rate of 11 cents/kWh.
- Feed-in tariff: 76.28 MW of photovoltaic and 157.50 MW of wind installed capacity—purchased by the EAC at the same fixed rate of 11 cents/kWh.
- Wholesale market: photovoltaic power (325.65 MW from independent producers and 20.00 MW from EAC Generation), plus 12.00 MW of wind power from independent producers – photovoltaics had a volume-weighted average selling price of 14.48 cents/kWh for the period October 1, 2025, through August 21, 2026, much cheaper than conventional generation.
Back to the public debate
The official chart from the Hellenic Electricity Market Operator (HEMO) correctly shows how much solar energy enters the system, but it does not indicate where it comes from or how each category is accounted for. This detail significantly changes how we should interpret—and discuss—any proposal for solar energy “agreements” before deciding whether they should be revised; it is first worth knowing how many actually exist, who manages them, and what percentage of production they account for.
The views expressed are personal.
*Dr. Andreas Prokopiou, former Senior Researcher in the field of Smart Grids at the University of Melbourne and researcher at Électricité de France R&D in France.
