A political impasse is taking shape in Israel following Tuesday’s parliamentary elections, as Benjamin Netanyahu leads his main rival, Gadi Eizenkot, neither political camp has secured the parliamentary majority required to form a government. Meanwhile, the two Arab parties are recording a historic electoral performance, securing a total of 19 seats and potentially playing a decisive role in post-election developments, according to The Times of Israel.
According to an update from Israel’s Central Elections Committee on Thursday evening, with 99.9% of the votes counted, Netanyahu’s bloc has secured 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared to 48 seats for the coalition of parties led by Yashar leader Gadi Eizenkot.
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This outcome leaves Netanyahu eight seats short of a majority of 61 lawmakers, while Eisenkot still needs 13 more seats. The result makes it extremely difficult to form a government without broader political agreements, which have so far been blocked by deep divisions among the parties.
Exit Polls Overturned – How Netanyahu Took the Lead
The final tally overturns the picture painted by both the polls of the previous weeks and the exit polls on election night.
Most pre-election polls showed Eisenkot’s bloc leading Netanyahu’s, though without securing a clear prospect of a parliamentary majority.
Similarly, the exit polls released by the major Israeli television networks at 10:00 p.m. on Tuesday night, immediately after the polls closed, gave Eisenkot’s coalition a lead of two to three seats.
However, as the count progressed, the balance of power shifted. Likud and Netanyahu’s bloc as a whole took the lead, with the margin ultimately settling at five seats.
Despite this turnaround, coming in first does not give Netanyahu the ability to form a majority government with his traditional allies.
A historic record for Arab parties—The 19 seats that could determine the next government
One of the most significant aspects of the election is the impressive gains made by the two Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am.
The two parties secured a total of 19 seats, marking the best performance by Arab parties in the history of Israeli elections.
The previous record was 15 seats, set in 2020, while in the outgoing Knesset, Arab parties held a total of 10 seats.
This historic achievement is attributed to the massive turnout of Arab voters in Tuesday’s election, with many of them going to the polls seeking to remove Netanyahu and his far-right allies from power.
According to the latest tally, Yusef Jabarin’s Joint List has secured 11 seats and Ra’am eight.
These 19 seats could, numerically speaking, secure a comfortable majority for a broader anti-Netanyahu coalition, bringing its total strength to 67 seats.
However, this numerical possibility does not automatically translate into a political agreement.
Most of the Jewish parties in the Eisenkot bloc have ruled out cooperation with Ra’am or the Joint List. The only exception is the Democrats, who have not ruled out such a possibility.
This political divide creates a paradox: the opposition potentially has the seats needed to oust Netanyahu, but so far there is no mutually acceptable formula for cooperation.
The distribution of the 120 seats in the Knesset
According to the Central Elections Committee’s update at 7:21 p.m. on Thursday, Netanyahu’s party and Eisenkot’s party have secured 27 and 21 seats, respectively.
Netanyahu’s Likud remains in first place, securing 27 seats, while Eisenkot’s Yashar emerges as the second-largest party with 21 seats.
Next is former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad with 12 seats, while the Joint List of Arab parties takes fourth place with 11.
Particularly noteworthy is the performance of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which is limited to six seats, recording its worst election result since 1992.
Netanyahu’s bloc loses 15 seats
Despite his lead over Eizenkot, Netanyahu faces a significant reduction in the parliamentary strength of the parties that support him.
His coalition, which includes Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, the far-right Otzma Yehudit, and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, holds 53 seats.
In the outgoing Knesset, the same political bloc held 68 seats.
The loss of 15 seats means that, despite finishing first in the election, Netanyahu cannot continue with the same parliamentary majority.
On the other hand, Eisenkot’s bloc—comprising Yashar, B’Yachad, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beytenu—holds 48 seats.
The five-seat difference between the two camps is not enough to give either of them a clear mandate to form a government.
Which parties failed to win seats in the Knesset
Several political parties failed to surpass the 3.25% electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset.
Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists-Economic party garnered only 2.63% of the vote, while Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party received just 1.7%.
Even lower is the Charedi Public party, which attempted to present an alternative political platform to the ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities but garnered only 0.2%.
The failure of these parties to enter the Knesset affects the overall distribution of seats and the possibilities for forming parliamentary coalitions.
The Counting of Special Votes and Next Steps
Thursday’s vote count focused on the so-called “double-envelope” ballots, which are estimated to number between 430,000 and 480,000.
These are primarily votes cast by military personnel, prisoners, diplomats serving abroad, and other citizens who were unable to vote at the polling stations where they were registered.
These votes are counted separately, as election authorities must first verify that the voters have not already cast a ballot at another polling station.
The full count was expected to be completed on Thursday evening, while the official announcement of the final results is scheduled for November 4.
The Political Impasse and the Difficult Equation of the Next Government
With the vote count essentially at an end, Israel appears deeply politically divided.
Netanyahu remains the leader of the largest party and the strongest parliamentary bloc, but he does not have the majority needed to govern with his current allies.
Eizenkot, for his part, failed to secure the first-place finish predicted by the polls and exit polls, and faces serious obstacles in his effort to form an alternative government.
Arab parties now have historically high parliamentary representation, but the reluctance of most opposition parties to cooperate with them limits their ability to make use of their 19 seats.
The result leaves open the possibility of difficult negotiations for a broader governing coalition, a minority government, or even a new election, if no solution is found.
Until the post-election landscape becomes clearer, Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to remain acting prime minister.
The biggest outstanding issue is no longer so much the distribution of seats as the ability of the parties to agree on a new governing majority, with the 19 seats held by Arab parties at the center of political calculations.
Source: Proto Thema
