Omonia and Paphos both suffered defeats in the Netherlands, losing to Nijmegen (3-1) and Twente (3-1), respectively.
After four matches in the Europa League, the “Greens” are in 18th place in the League Phase with 6 points. According to Football Meets Data, there is a 60.8% chance that the “clover” will finish in the top 24 and advance to the next round of the competition. As for the Top 8, the odds are significantly lower at 2.4%.
ΣΧΕΤΙΚΑ ΑΡΘΡΑ
After two consecutive losses, the Nicosia team must aim for an… upset in their next match against Juventus in Turin as part of Matchday 5 (11/26, 10:00 p.m.).
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— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 5, 2026UEL projections after MD4]
Changes in Top 8: IN:
Union SG,
Lyon OUT:
Beşiktaş,
Sunderland
Dinamo Zagreb,
Sturm Graz,
Sparta Praha *Teams are ordered on average expected positions from 100K simulations https://t.co/fGsJM0b4Cm
As for the Pafos team’s chances of advancing—which currently sits in 30th place with one draw and two losses—the… numbers aren’t in its favor. Specifically, the “Blues” are just outside the Top 24, as according to the algorithm they will finish in 25th place, and their chances of making the Top 24 stand at 52.5%.
For the fourth matchday of the competition, they’ll face Midtjylland at “Alphamega Stadium” (Nov. 26, 7:45 p.m.), and if they still fail to earn their first three points, things will get even tougher.
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— Football Meets Data (@fmeetsdata) November 5, 2026UECL projections after MD3]
Ajax,
Freiburg OUT:
Atalanta
Riga OUT:
Pafos *Teams are ordered on average final points from 100K simulations https://t.co/NmadPM4noK
